March 19, 2025: Market Update

Opening Remarks

Eric:

Alright guys, well, welcome and good afternoon.

Thank you all for joining us for what I think will be a timely market and economic update in light of all that we’re hearing, seeing, and probably feeling these days.

As always, I’d like to kick the call off on behalf of the entire Carpion Private Wealth team. We hope everyone has had a great start to 2025 within your own personal and professional lives.

I also hope everyone is remaining grounded as we go through this market correction during the first quarter of the year.

At Carpion, whether it’s in the office, over Zoom, or at a large in-person event, we always try to provide an educational platform where we can bring relevant subject matter to our participants — from markets and healthcare to legislative updates — in order to provide the most up-to-date information possible in an educational format.

Our goal today is simple:

• Provide facts
• Weed out some of the noise
• Offer clarity and perspective as this market correction runs its course

This is a good time to remain engaged and simply tune in.

This afternoon, we’re grateful to once again have a special guest with us — someone we hosted last year who received tremendous feedback and who we felt would be a great fit to provide insight into what’s happening in today’s markets.

We’re joined again by Sanctuary Wealth’s Chief Investment Strategist, Maryanne Bartels.

Maryanne is an award-winning strategist who has spent more than 40 years on Wall Street analyzing and communicating trends across the economy, equities, bonds, commodities, and ETFs.

She’s also highly regarded for developing proprietary models for equity pairs trading, stock sector and industry selection, and extensive work involving hedge funds.

Maryanne has appeared across major media outlets including CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business, and has been quoted in publications including The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Barron’s.

Maryanne, thank you again for joining us.

Market Correction & Investor Sentiment

Maryanne Bartels:

Thank you very much, Eric, and thank you everyone for joining.

The first thing I would say is that market corrections are normal.

I know they never feel good when you’re living through them, but corrections are a natural part of investing and market cycles.

What we’ve experienced recently is a combination of:

• Elevated valuations
• Investor uncertainty around interest rates
• Economic slowing
• Geopolitical concerns
• Continued digestion of the strong rally we had previously

Markets had become extended, particularly in technology and AI-related names.

When markets move up as quickly as they did, periods of consolidation and pullbacks become healthy and necessary.

That’s what we’re going through right now.

The important thing is that the underlying fundamentals of the economy are not collapsing.

The economy is slowing, yes, but it’s not falling apart.

Consumers are still spending, employment remains relatively healthy, and earnings — while moderating — are still generally coming in better than many expected.

Interest Rates & Federal Reserve Outlook

Maryanne Bartels:

The market continues to focus heavily on the Federal Reserve.

Investors are trying to determine:

• When the Fed begins cutting rates
• How aggressive they may be
• Whether inflation continues trending lower
• Whether economic growth slows too quickly

We still believe rates have likely peaked for this cycle.

Inflation has clearly moderated from its highs, and over time we do believe rates will gradually move lower.

However, markets may continue experiencing volatility as expectations around Fed policy shift from month to month depending on economic data.

That’s why you’ve seen such sharp reactions to:

• Employment reports
• Inflation data
• Consumer spending numbers
• Federal Reserve commentary

The market is trying to price in the timing of the next stage of the cycle.

Technology & Artificial Intelligence

Eric:

A lot of investors continue focusing on AI and technology leadership. How are you thinking about that space now after some of this volatility?

Maryanne Bartels:

Technology remains the leadership sector of this market.

AI is still one of the most important secular growth themes we’ve seen in decades.

But investors need to remember that even during strong secular bull markets, you can still experience corrections of 10%, 20%, or even more in leading sectors.

That’s normal.

We continue believing the long-term AI trend remains intact.

Companies tied to:

• Semiconductors
• Infrastructure
• Cloud computing
• Data centers
• Software productivity

…should continue benefiting over time.

But short term, markets can absolutely become overheated.

That’s why discipline and diversification matter.

Portfolio Construction & Discipline

Maryanne Bartels:

One of the most important things during periods like this is staying disciplined.

The investors who struggle the most are often the ones who react emotionally to volatility.

That’s why having the right asset allocation is so important.

A diversified portfolio across:

• Equities
• Fixed income
• Cash
• Alternatives where appropriate

…can help investors remain grounded during periods of market stress.

The key to long-term wealth creation is consistency and patience.

Economic Outlook

Eric:

Do you think we’re heading into recession?

Maryanne Bartels:

At the moment, we do not believe the economy is entering a severe recession.

Growth is slowing, but slowing is not the same thing as collapse.

There’s still a tremendous amount of liquidity within the system, and corporate balance sheets overall remain in decent shape.

That said, we do expect periods where economic data may weaken and create additional volatility in markets.

Investors should prepare for continued swings in sentiment.

But longer term, we still believe the broader secular trend remains constructive.

International Markets & Sector Themes

Maryanne Bartels:

We continue seeing opportunities internationally in selective areas.

Japan remains interesting because of:

• Manufacturing shifts
• Corporate reform
• Technology investment

We also continue liking areas tied to:

• Infrastructure
• Industrials
• Energy
• Utilities

Particularly because of increased investment related to AI, electrification, and domestic manufacturing trends.

Utilities in particular have become increasingly important because AI infrastructure requires enormous power demand.

Closing Thoughts

Eric:

Maryanne, any final thoughts for investors as we navigate this correction?

Maryanne Bartels:

Yes.

Remain patient.

Corrections are emotional, but they are also normal.

It’s important not to let short-term volatility distract you from long-term objectives.

The investors who historically perform best are the ones who stay disciplined, diversified, and patient through difficult periods.

Final Remarks

Eric:

Maryanne, thank you again for joining us and for sharing your insight.

We greatly appreciate your perspective, especially during periods like this where clarity and experience matter so much.

As always, we’ll continue providing educational updates and market commentary throughout the year.

Thank you again to everyone who joined us today.

We hope everyone has a great evening, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.